Sly Bald Guy in the UK. Some interesting times ahead for us Brits.

[Mr Jules]

For Sly bald guys (and others !) outside the UK. 

You may be aware of UK general election taking place tomorrow (7 May 2015).

For American sly members unfamiliar with the British system, here in the UK, we have a parliamentary system not a presidential system. We don't elect our head of state- after all - how would you vote for the Queen !! And we don't elect our prime minister either. The British prime minister usually leads the largest political party in the British House of Commons (roughly equivalent to the US House of Representatives). Heading a government, the British prime minister has weekly meetings with the Queen and update her of what's happening in the country, which she heads.

So what's happening tomorrow ? We are all choosing a member of parliament (MP) from each one of the 650 single member parliamentary districts.  These elected MPs then represent us in the House of Commons for the next 5 years. As with the US congress, our MPs also have party affiliations. The main British political parties include the Conservatives (led by Prime Minister David Cameron) and the Labour party, who are currently in opposition. Other House of Commons  political parties include centrist Liberal Democrats (with 57 House of Commons MPs and supported prime minister Cameron); Scottish and Welsh nationalists; 18 MPs from Northern Ireland and a few independents. Quite a mix !

After polling stations close at 22:00 tomorrow night (7 May), the BBC results service begins. Results will come in throughout the night. There’s a general expectation that the House of Commons election results will be inconclusive. If the Conservatives win more than 326 House of Commons districts, they are home and dry.  But this outcome has been virtually ruled out.  The next government may result negotiations between two or three political parties. For instance, the Conservatives (currently 306 MPs) and LibDems (currently  57 MPs) worked together. But this time around, it’s expected LibDems may not have sufficient MPs to support the Conservatives, so a third political party may need to invited to negotiations.  So we are looking at electoral uncertainty and long negotiations.

Scotland adds further complications. Following the September 2014 independence referendum, many Scots feel cheated. There’s a real sense that English politicians made false promises to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom.  So the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) look set to win nearly all 59 Scottish districts and the MPs which Scotland sends to Westminster. The SNP will then be third largest political party in the House of Commons. Headed by formidable politicians, the SNP will use their mandate from Scottish voters.

All the while post elections negotiations take place, David Cameron remains as caretaker prime minister. The Queen will be waiting in London’s Buckingham Palace. For it is the responsibility of the current prime minster, David Cameron, to advise the Queen on her choice of the next prime minister.  Prime Minister Cameron may advise the Queen that he thinks he has the parliamentary support to continue as prime minister. Or he may advise the Queen to choose another who may have a better chance at running the country. It all depends of the parliamentary size of each of the 10 or more political parties who’ll be in the House of Commons.

By convention, the Prime Minister must be an MP in the House of Commons.

Here in the UK, we face uncertainty and I'm fascinated ! I studied British government and politics for 5 years – right up to university degree level.

If you have any questions about these British elections and parliamentary system, please contact me. I’m happy to inform !!  While at university, I also studied the US government system, so I know the differences across the 'pond' !!

For the SBG moderators: no political axe to grind here – just a London bald guy who’s happy to provide some British insights !!!

Mr Jules … bald for more than 3 years now. And with a goatee, handlebar moustache, septum piercing and ink. And all thanks to Sly Bald Guys !! See happy picture update.

[Goatee]

All the parties are basically the same. Full of empty promises and complete bullpoo!!

[Laser Man]

Thanks for the rundown!  I've followed the run-up in The Economist.  Seems like the Cameron government has got good "statistics", e.g., lower unemployment rates, higher economic growth, but many feel this has not benefited the average family. 

Interesting too is the SNP's desire to kill / defund the Trident (nuclear defense) system - a sticking point in last fall's independence vote.  I don't see how the Tories or Labour could agree to that.

As to the differences between our systems, I think both have there pros and cons.  The U.S. has only one position that is elected by the entire nation (the presidency) whereas Britain has none since the prime minister isn't elected.  This and the fact that the presidency is a separate branch of the government makes for quite a different dynamic in governing.

[geeman]

Lower unemployment.... Yeah.... But most of the new jobs are part time or zero hour contracts... So the workers have no rights, like most countries at the moment, the UK isn't in a good state, whoever you vote for.... You end up with virtually the same result..... A load of rich blokes being lobbied to pass laws to make other rich blokes even richer.... Can't wait for it to be over, it's all the news talks about at the moment

[Mr Jules]

Good observations from NPSBG and Geeman.

The Cameron government got us through the UK through economic difficulties. Annual government borrowing has been reduced, there's economic growth and unemployment has come down. But these headlines mask problems. Many in the UK have experienced pay freezes, pay cuts and job insecurity. There's been a real squeeze on local government funding with cuts in services delivered locally including adult social care and public transport.

I still think we need keep an eye on Anglo-Scottish relations. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is likely to be the third biggest political party in the next UK parliament. Leading English politicians dismiss the idea of working with the SNP. But this could be a costly error of judgement.

[nuts]

Unfortunately  the comments re UK apply  just as much to Australia  and many other countries.   The rich get all the breaks and the rest are left to survive as best they can.  Has ever been thus.

[geeman]

Makes you wonder why we put up with it?

[Goatee]

Working with the SNP will be a massive mistake! They want to split up the UK!

[Mr Jules]

Working with the SNP will be a massive mistake! They want to split up the UK!

Exactly.

If English politicians exclude SNP from government, my concern is it will give them the excuse to hold and win a second independence referendum.

[SlyMike]

I've voted, not sure whether it will make any difference to the result, it remains to be seen.

[Goatee]

Well, Conservatives got back in! This time as a majority! I am happy about that

[geeman]

Yeah.... But hardly a real majority, only 25% of the votes lol, now let's see what happens....

[Goatee]

True!

[Mr Jules]

Yeah.... But hardly a real majority, only 25% of the votes lol, now let's see what happens....

Yes, the new Conservative government now has something in common with Tony Blair's 2005-2010 Labour government. Both governing outright with less than 40% of the popular vote. Like the USA, we use the winner takes all "First Past the Post" method to elect members of parliament (MPs).

The US is dominated by the two party system of Republican and Democrats. But in the UK, things are complicated. There are four 'nationwide' parties now in parliament - the Conservatives, Labour, UKIP, Liberal Democrats and Greens. The Conservatives and Labour are two main parties. Together these two main parties bagged 67% of the popular vote and 86% of all the MPs. There are also 6 other political parties in the UK parliament, all of these are nationalist regional parties from Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. So we have quite a mix !

This UK election produced two winners:
(1) The Conservatives party - they increased both their vote share and number of MPs. They now have more MPs and than all the parties combined. So for the next 5 years, Conservative leader, Prime Minister David Cameron faces little opposition to the planned government programme.

(2) The Scottish National Party (SNP) - they took nearly half the vote across Scotland. Scotland sends 59 MPs to the UK parliament - 56 of these will now be SNP MPs. They are now the third biggest group in the UK parliamentary.

Prime minister David Cameron may well now be needing all his political skills. Scottish voters have turned their backs on mainstream UK parties. Scotland's representation in the UK parliament is almost entirely the Scottish National Party (SNP). And the SNP have demands specifically for Scotland. In my opinion, I think both the UK prime minister and the SNP will look for political solutions which give Scotland greater "home rule", while maintaining the integrity of the UK. The alternative is just too awful to contemplate.

And there's the UK's relationship with the rest of the European Union (EU). The prime minister has promised UK voters a referendum on continued membership of the EU.  He wants to win this and keep the UK in the EU. He's going to need all his campaigning skills and I think he will get the result he wants.